US Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.89 (0.63, 0.95) 0.9 (0.85, 0.95) 1.1 (0.96, 1.24) 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) 0.93 (0.87, 0.98)
1 0.91 (0.83, 0.96) 0.92 (0.85, 0.96) 0.98 (0.85, 1.12) 0.48 (0.38, 0.58) 0.86 (0.81, 0.91)
2 0.92 (0.85, 0.98) 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) 0.86 (0.76, 0.98) 0.52 (0.43, 0.6) 0.88 (0.83, 0.94)
3 0.98 (0.91, 1.03) 0.97 (0.89, 1.03) 0.88 (0.78, 0.98) 0.55 (0.46, 0.65) 0.98 (0.93, 1.04)
4 0.95 (0.87, 1.03) 0.96 (0.86, 1.05) 0.88 (0.78, 1) 0.56 (0.47, 0.67) 0.95 (0.91, 1)
5 1.08 (0.91, 1.22) 1.15 (1.03, 1.23) 0.94 (0.84, 1.07) 0.67 (0.53, 0.82) 0.93 (0.9, 0.97)
6 0.94 (0.87, 1.02) 0.93 (0.86, 1.03) 0.9 (0.84, 0.99) 0.56 (0.45, 0.64) 0.97 (0.93, 1.01)
7 1 (0.86, 1.08) 1.01 (0.86, 1.08) 0.9 (0.82, 0.97) 0.51 (0.44, 0.58) 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)
8 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) 0.49 (0.41, 0.56) 0.94 (0.89, 0.98)
9 0.92 (0.5, 0.97) 0.92 (0.85, 0.97) 0.94 (0.84, 1.06) 0.54 (0.44, 0.63) 0.86 (0.81, 0.91)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.947 0.000 0.053 0.000
1 0.846 0.000 0.000 0.154
2 0.780 0.000 0.000 0.220
3 0.494 0.000 0.000 0.506
4 0.555 0.011 0.000 0.434
5 0.609 0.000 0.000 0.391
6 0.837 0.000 0.000 0.163
7 0.948 0.000 0.000 0.052
8 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9 0.866 0.000 0.134 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 m_466 1.0000000 X_760_779 0.1582888 ach_sid_noresp 0.1234197
1 m_466 1.0000000 X_001_139_SY 0.8410904 X_360_389_SY 0.1236269
2 m_466 1.0000000 X_780_799 0.8161595 X_800_999 0.8051060
3 m_466 1.0000000 X_780_799 0.7183118 ach_sid_noresp 0.6762765
4 m_466 0.9725141 X_240_279 0.8753945 X_780_799 0.2145994
5 m_466 1.0000000 X_V00_V91 0.5526969 m_599 0.3966481
6 m_466 1.0000000 X_240_279 0.9802705 m_574 0.6717196
7 m_466 1.0000000 X_240_279 0.8373524 m_574 0.7779153
8 m_466 1.0000000 X_240_279 0.9999997 X_780_799 0.9999977
9 m_466 1.0000000 X_001_139_SY 0.8022132 ach_sid_noresp 0.0648602

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.9 (0.85, 0.95) m_466 1 0.86 (0.65, 0.95) X_760_779 0.16 0.91 (0.71, 0.97) X_V00_V91 0.12 0.91 (0.72, 0.97)
1 0.92 (0.85, 0.96) m_466 1 0.92 (0.82, 0.99) X_001_139_SY 0.84 0.91 (0.77, 0.97) X_360_389_SY 0.12 0.91 (0.77, 0.97)
2 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) m_466 1 0.91 (0.81, 0.98) X_780_799 0.82 0.93 (0.82, 1.02) X_800_999 0.81 0.93 (0.8, 1.01)
3 0.97 (0.89, 1.03) m_466 1 0.93 (0.84, 1.03) X_780_799 0.72 0.91 (0.83, 1.07) X_280_289 0.18 0.9 (0.83, 1.07)
4 0.96 (0.86, 1.05) m_466 0.97 0.87 (0.77, 1.16) X_240_279 0.88 0.94 (0.8, 1.19) X_780_799 0.21 0.97 (0.82, 1.32)
5 1.15 (1.03, 1.23) m_466 1 0.95 (0.64, 1.04) X_V00_V91 0.55 0.95 (0.58, 1.02) m_599 0.4 0.95 (0.61, 1.05)
6 0.93 (0.86, 1.03) m_466 1 0.73 (0.45, 1) X_240_279 0.98 0.9 (0.52, 1.03) m_574 0.67 0.94 (0.51, 1.05)
7 1.01 (0.86, 1.08) m_466 1 0.73 (0.54, 1.02) X_240_279 0.84 0.66 (0.45, 0.84) m_574 0.78 0.77 (0.46, 0.87)
8 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) m_466 1 0.82 (0.7, 0.93) X_240_279 1 0.7 (0.61, 0.78) X_780_799 1 0.72 (0.65, 0.83)
9 0.92 (0.85, 0.97) m_466 1 0.79 (0.72, 0.99) X_001_139_SY 0.8 0.79 (0.72, 0.98) X_800_999 0.06 0.84 (0.73, 0.99)

Plots

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## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

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