Synthetic Controls
Report generated Monday, July 23, 2018
US Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.89 (0.63, 0.95) | 0.9 (0.85, 0.95) | 1.1 (0.96, 1.24) | 0.63 (0.55, 0.72) | 0.93 (0.87, 0.98) |
| 1 | 0.91 (0.83, 0.96) | 0.92 (0.85, 0.96) | 0.98 (0.85, 1.12) | 0.48 (0.38, 0.58) | 0.86 (0.81, 0.91) |
| 2 | 0.92 (0.85, 0.98) | 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) | 0.86 (0.76, 0.98) | 0.52 (0.43, 0.6) | 0.88 (0.83, 0.94) |
| 3 | 0.98 (0.91, 1.03) | 0.97 (0.89, 1.03) | 0.88 (0.78, 0.98) | 0.55 (0.46, 0.65) | 0.98 (0.93, 1.04) |
| 4 | 0.95 (0.87, 1.03) | 0.96 (0.86, 1.05) | 0.88 (0.78, 1) | 0.56 (0.47, 0.67) | 0.95 (0.91, 1) |
| 5 | 1.08 (0.91, 1.22) | 1.15 (1.03, 1.23) | 0.94 (0.84, 1.07) | 0.67 (0.53, 0.82) | 0.93 (0.9, 0.97) |
| 6 | 0.94 (0.87, 1.02) | 0.93 (0.86, 1.03) | 0.9 (0.84, 0.99) | 0.56 (0.45, 0.64) | 0.97 (0.93, 1.01) |
| 7 | 1 (0.86, 1.08) | 1.01 (0.86, 1.08) | 0.9 (0.82, 0.97) | 0.51 (0.44, 0.58) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.99) |
| 8 | 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) | 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) | 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) | 0.49 (0.41, 0.56) | 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) |
| 9 | 0.92 (0.5, 0.97) | 0.92 (0.85, 0.97) | 0.94 (0.84, 1.06) | 0.54 (0.44, 0.63) | 0.86 (0.81, 0.91) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.947 | 0.000 | 0.053 | 0.000 |
| 1 | 0.846 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.154 |
| 2 | 0.780 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.220 |
| 3 | 0.494 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.506 |
| 4 | 0.555 | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.434 |
| 5 | 0.609 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.391 |
| 6 | 0.837 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.163 |
| 7 | 0.948 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.052 |
| 8 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 9 | 0.866 | 0.000 | 0.134 | 0.000 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_760_779 | 0.1582888 | ach_sid_noresp | 0.1234197 |
| 1 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_001_139_SY | 0.8410904 | X_360_389_SY | 0.1236269 |
| 2 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_780_799 | 0.8161595 | X_800_999 | 0.8051060 |
| 3 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_780_799 | 0.7183118 | ach_sid_noresp | 0.6762765 |
| 4 | m_466 | 0.9725141 | X_240_279 | 0.8753945 | X_780_799 | 0.2145994 |
| 5 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_V00_V91 | 0.5526969 | m_599 | 0.3966481 |
| 6 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_240_279 | 0.9802705 | m_574 | 0.6717196 |
| 7 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_240_279 | 0.8373524 | m_574 | 0.7779153 |
| 8 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_240_279 | 0.9999997 | X_780_799 | 0.9999977 |
| 9 | m_466 | 1.0000000 | X_001_139_SY | 0.8022132 | ach_sid_noresp | 0.0648602 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 (0.85, 0.95) | m_466 | 1 | 0.86 (0.65, 0.95) | X_760_779 | 0.16 | 0.91 (0.71, 0.97) | X_V00_V91 | 0.12 | 0.91 (0.72, 0.97) |
| 1 | 0.92 (0.85, 0.96) | m_466 | 1 | 0.92 (0.82, 0.99) | X_001_139_SY | 0.84 | 0.91 (0.77, 0.97) | X_360_389_SY | 0.12 | 0.91 (0.77, 0.97) |
| 2 | 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) | m_466 | 1 | 0.91 (0.81, 0.98) | X_780_799 | 0.82 | 0.93 (0.82, 1.02) | X_800_999 | 0.81 | 0.93 (0.8, 1.01) |
| 3 | 0.97 (0.89, 1.03) | m_466 | 1 | 0.93 (0.84, 1.03) | X_780_799 | 0.72 | 0.91 (0.83, 1.07) | X_280_289 | 0.18 | 0.9 (0.83, 1.07) |
| 4 | 0.96 (0.86, 1.05) | m_466 | 0.97 | 0.87 (0.77, 1.16) | X_240_279 | 0.88 | 0.94 (0.8, 1.19) | X_780_799 | 0.21 | 0.97 (0.82, 1.32) |
| 5 | 1.15 (1.03, 1.23) | m_466 | 1 | 0.95 (0.64, 1.04) | X_V00_V91 | 0.55 | 0.95 (0.58, 1.02) | m_599 | 0.4 | 0.95 (0.61, 1.05) |
| 6 | 0.93 (0.86, 1.03) | m_466 | 1 | 0.73 (0.45, 1) | X_240_279 | 0.98 | 0.9 (0.52, 1.03) | m_574 | 0.67 | 0.94 (0.51, 1.05) |
| 7 | 1.01 (0.86, 1.08) | m_466 | 1 | 0.73 (0.54, 1.02) | X_240_279 | 0.84 | 0.66 (0.45, 0.84) | m_574 | 0.78 | 0.77 (0.46, 0.87) |
| 8 | 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) | m_466 | 1 | 0.82 (0.7, 0.93) | X_240_279 | 1 | 0.7 (0.61, 0.78) | X_780_799 | 1 | 0.72 (0.65, 0.83) |
| 9 | 0.92 (0.85, 0.97) | m_466 | 1 | 0.79 (0.72, 0.99) | X_001_139_SY | 0.8 | 0.79 (0.72, 0.98) | X_800_999 | 0.06 | 0.84 (0.73, 0.99) |
Plots
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